A 38-year-old male presents with a 2-year history of insidious left knee pain, intermittent swelling, and mechanical symptoms. Over the past 6 months, symptoms progressed to constant pain and persistent, boggy effusion. Prior aspirations yielded dark, serosanguinous fluid, negative for crystals and infection. Physical examination reveals a doughy effusion, significant synovial thickening, and a 5° flexion contracture with maximal flexion to 100°. Plain radiographs show a moderate effusion, preserved joint space, and subtle marginal subchondral erosions. Given this clinical picture, which of the following is the most likely diagnosis?